Governing by Conflict, Chaos, Spectacle
Trump Is Falling Into the Thucydides Trap
Like most of you it is hard right now getting your head around Trump’s unilateral, unconstitutional actions against Iran. It is hard to put into words reactions to this event that threatens peace and put millions at risk of wider conflicts.
Understanding Trump’s basic nature which is narissistic, it is clear that his calculus isn’t what is best for the nation, but what is best for him. What does he think he will get out of this? Better polls? Business opportunities? Adulation from his base? Improve his image as a tough guy? Take your pick. It is likely all the above.
But what is evident is that the United States isn’t being governed by people who have a sense of moral compass or ethics. These are people without a strategic vision beyond raw power, masculinity, religious extremism, and a belief that might makes right. This is governance by deliberate chaos, spectacle, and conflict. Trump thrives on it.
If Trump were a student of history (or of any subject) he would understand what the political scientist Graham Allison calls, the Thucydides Trap. The Thucydides Trap describes the dangerous dynamic that arises when a rising power threatens to displace a dominant, established power. Historically, this situation has frequently led to war.
The term originates from the writings of the Greek historian Thucydides, who analyzed the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens, concluding that the war's inevitability stemmed from the fear and insecurity Sparta felt as Athens grew in power. The core of the trap is the tension between a nation that is gaining influence and one that is already dominant.
The percieved insecurity that comes from a new rising power provides justification for “pre-emptive action” that secures the dominate position of the older power. War is called “self-defense” and necessary to achieve peace. It is a trap of contradictions and redefining language. Donald Trump is falling into the Trap in textbook fashion.
In trying to put my thoughts into a coherent framework, I came across an article by anthropologist, James Greenberg. He is Professor Emeritus of Anthropology at the University of Arizona. His article posted this morning provide the words I was looking for, so I am going to reprint his post here. I think you will agree that Greenberg, with his insight into human history, behavior and politics, captures the moment we are in.
Enjoy his article!
James Greenberg
As U.S. missiles strike nuclear facilities deep inside Iran, the official narratives unfold with predictable cadence: targeted action, necessary defense, deterrence. But the more revealing question isn’t about strategy or even legality—it’s about profit, power, and survival. Who stands to gain from this war? And what does it offer Donald Trump?
This isn’t conjecture. It’s pattern recognition.
Trump doesn’t operate as a statesman. He operates as a dealmaker. But in his world, deals aren’t mutual agreements—they’re power plays. Leverage, dominance, and impunity guide his calculus. Every crisis becomes an opportunity. And war—especially one cast as existential, moral, or redemptive—is the biggest transaction of all.
The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites is not simply a military escalation. It’s the staging ground for something larger: a political theater in which Trump can cloak his vulnerabilities in the symbols of strength. This is not grand strategy. It’s survival by spectacle.
Crisis as Cover and Catalyst
Trump understands spectacle not merely as distraction, but as narrative control. War grants him the role of wartime president—commander, protector, strongman. Legal scrutiny recedes. Indictments look like interference. The opposition becomes “disloyal,” the media “unpatriotic.” Dissent is cast as danger.
But this isn’t just about optics. It’s ritual. The bombing of Iran becomes a performance of power: mythic, masculine, morally unambiguous. The appearance of command replaces the messiness of policy. Trump doesn’t need to win the war. He needs to inhabit its theater—to generate a politics of destiny while the machinery of accountability stalls.
The War Economy and the Patronage State
Trump’s base of power is not ideological but transactional. Less party than patronage network, it rewards loyalty with access—access to contracts, deregulation, immunity. War fuels that machine.
Within hours of the bombing, markets shifted. Defense stocks surged. Oil futures spiked. Political insiders placed bets before the public knew the stage was set. This isn’t collateral economic activity—it’s the business model. Crisis creates volatility. Volatility creates margins. The system profits from instability.
Trump doesn’t hide this convergence of state power and private gain. He institutionalizes it. Those who bankroll his machine understand that conflict accelerates return on investment. War becomes not a policy failure but a profit strategy.
From Cultural Backlash to Civilizational War
Trump’s war isn’t only fought abroad. It’s narrated at home—as a continuation of the domestic culture war by other means. Iran, already demonized as a theocratic, defiant, and alien adversary, now becomes the perfect enemy: religiously distinct, non-Western, and “irrational.” It satisfies both geopolitical and symbolic functions.
This is not just political maneuvering. It taps into a deeper moral economy—one where war redeems status lost in globalization, immigration, and demographic change. It promises not safety but vindication. The world, seen as upside down, must be set right. Punishment becomes the path to restoration.
And this logic spills inward. Foreign enemies are mirrored by domestic ones. Muslims abroad, migrants at the border, political opponents at home—all folded into a singular, civilization-defining narrative. The line between foreign and domestic threat collapses.
Crisis as a Mode of Rule
Trump doesn’t just exploit crises—he governs through them. War becomes justification for emergency powers: expanded surveillance, media suppression, repressive policing. Legal norms aren’t abolished outright; they’re suspended, selectively enforced, or theatrically bypassed.
The bombing of Iran may mark the start of another war, but it also inaugurates a phase of exception—a space where the rule of law becomes conditional and civic life is subordinated to the demands of “national security.” Elections can be delayed. Protest can be criminalized. The extraordinary becomes normalized.
The genius of this mode of rule lies in its circularity: the emergency justifies repression, and repression manufactures the conditions for further emergency. Governance becomes an endless loop of threats, real and invented.
The Afterlife of Empire
Behind the bombs lies the old imperial story: the Middle East as a frontier of chaos, backwardness, and danger. A place that must be disciplined, reshaped, and dominated for the greater good. But under Trump, this narrative is stripped of subtlety and diplomacy.
Iran is not just framed as a strategic rival—it is cast as the embodiment of disorder itself. Its destruction becomes a moral imperative, a test of will, a rite of purification. Aligning fully with Israel’s maximalist posture, Trump reactivates a civilizational myth: that American power is not coercive but redemptive, not violent but virtuous.
This isn’t just about Iran. It’s about who defines order, and who must submit. About whose lives count, and whose deaths are just the price of power reasserted.
Not War by Necessity—War by Design
So while analysts debate troop movements, airspace violations, and diplomatic consequences, the deeper truth is this: Trump doesn’t stumble into war. He uses it.
The bombing of Iran is not merely policy—it is leverage. It is an instrument of personal gain, a tool of consolidation, a way to reset the board before the game escapes his control.
War suspends judgment. It amplifies fear. It rewards loyalty. It drowns dissent. And above all, it reframes chaos as leadership.
Trump doesn’t need peace. He needs conflict. Because in conflict, he thrives—in spectacle, he survives. And in the ruins, his allies profit.
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Those who want war so badly need to offer either themselves or one child for military service. Its easy to launch a war when someone else's kid does your dirty work.