Here is what I find fascinating. Two-thirds of us believe that abortion should be made available and legal in most or all circumstances. Yet, one-third of the adult population has stripped this basic right away from 50% of the population and continues to push bans state after state. These people are not in the majority, yet they seem to be winning time after time. What is going on here?
Here is the main point: When it comes to the issue of abortion rights and women’s reproductive health care, we aren’t as polarized as we are being told. A new study from the Public Religion Research Institute has revealed that among most of the current issues dividing Americans, abortion rights are not one of them. Most Americans agree that abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
Here are some highlights from the study:
More than six in ten Americans (64%) say abortion should be legal in most or all cases; by contrast, 35% of Americans say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases.
Just 9% of Americans believe that abortion should be illegal in all cases.
More than six in ten men (62%) and two-thirds of women (66%) say abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
A majority of residents in 45 states say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases; there are only five states where a minority of residents support abortion legality.
Roughly only one in ten residents in most states say abortion should be illegal in all cases. This belief is most common in Kentucky and North Dakota (both at 16%).
Among all Americans, over two-thirds (68%) oppose laws that make it illegal to use or receive through the mail FDA-approved drugs for medical abortion, often called abortion pills.
So why are we arguing about this? Even most men (62%) agree with women (66%) that abortion should be legal in most or all cases. Even in the states where there are abortion bans, there is not a majority or even a plurality of people who support such bans.
If our political leaders truly followed the will of the people on this issue, Roe v Wade would never have been overturned and we wouldn’t have states banning abortions. The majority (2/3) do not want this.
So why is it happening? Well, there is a demon in the details, as the Christian Nationalists would say. Let’s delve a little deeper into the study and find out why public policy is trending the wrong way in a country that purports to be a democracy.
As you can predict, there is a wide partisan divide between the two political parties. Republicans and Democrats are deeply divided on abortion, with a 50-point gap between them: 86% of Democrats say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared with 36% of Republicans. Just 15% of Republicans believe abortion should be illegal in all cases. (Remember that number, it is where the demon lives)
Though the partisan divide is wide it is interesting to note that only 15% of Republicans would support a total abortion ban. They might accept a 15-week or even a six-week ban, but only a small minority of Republicans would support a complete ban. Yet, currently, 14 states have enacted total abortion bans despite the reality that even within the Republican party only 15% of them support it. What gives here?
There are several reasons why abortion bans have been enacted despite it being a minority fringe idea. The first reason is tied to a misunderstanding of what the term “pro-life” means. In a Gallup poll from 2023, it was reported that 44% of Americans self-identify as “pro-life.” This seems incongruent with the findings from PPRI. The problem arises when you only use the broad term “pro-life.” Being pro-life doesn’t necessarily mean you support a total abortion ban. It all depends on how you ask the question.
The PRRI survey asked respondents if they do not support abortion in “most or all cases.” This is a much more nuanced question. What happened to the 44% who are pro-life when asked the question this way is that the 44% collapsed very quickly into 15%. Perhaps those who identify as pro-life and even supported overturning Roe didn’t mean for it to become a complete ban.
Even if a pro-lifer supports a 15-week ban on abortions, it still allows for roughly 93% of all abortions to take place. Pro-life may not be as absolute as the phrase sounds. That is why in conservative states like Kansas and Ohio, abortion rights have been sustained by 60% or more of the voters in referendums.
But this still leaves the question open as to why 15% of the population can institute a complete abortion ban in 14 states, where none of these states have even a plurality of people that support it.
Here is the second reason that is revealed in the PRRI data.
Support for a total abortion ban is only supported by the most radical, extreme religious groups in the United States. It isn’t accurate to say that “people of faith” generally support abortion bans. Take a look at this chart from the study:
Most religious groups do not support making abortion illegal in most or all cases. The first twelve religious groups listed support abortion rights in most or all cases by over 50%. This includes Muslims.
It is only in the last four groups that you find 50% or more support for making abortion illegal in most or all cases. These groups include Hispanic Protestants, white evangelical Protestants, Jehovah’s Witnesses, and Latter-day Saints. Of these four groups, white evangelical Protestants are by far the largest. Coincidentally, white evangelicals make up about 15% of the American population, which happens to match the percentage of people who support banning abortions in most or all cases.
Additionally, the one factor that is highly correlated with support for banning abortions at the state level is the percentage of those aligned with Christian Nationalist ideology. As an example, the state of Mississippi has the highest alignment of those claiming to be Christian Nationalists and predictably the highest likelihood of supporting a complete abortion ban. This relationship holds up consistently from state to state as the graph below illustrates. The states at the upper right side of the line are those that are most likely to ban abortions and have high percentages of those claiming Christian Nationalist ideas.
As I have written before, white Christian Nationalists, although a small minority of people in the US are highly influential and have taken over the Republican party. They are well-funded, well-organized, and highly motivated. In states where they are a strong influence, you will see proposals at the state legislature to move toward a full abortion ban. This is an extremist position and one based on religious beliefs.
Christian Nationalists don’t care if they are pushing their “strongly held religious beliefs” on the majority and they don’t care that it breaks down the Constitutional principle of the separation of church and state. That is their goal. They believe they have a mandate from God, and that Christians (like them) should oversee government. This is why it is such a dangerous, non-democratic movement.
In this case, not only is it a threat to democracy, but it is also a threat to the life and well-being of millions of women who are now faced with criminality and sanction if they seek an abortion. Christian Nationalists are even considering passing surveillance protocols to monitor a woman’s pregnancy so that she can’t seek to end it. They would monitor a woman’s movement and travel so that she couldn’t go out of state to seek an abortion. They want to restrict and monitor the mail of pregnant women who seek pharmaceutical abortions. Women, in many cases, also must wait in hospital parking lots until they reach near-death sepsis before doctors will administer life-saving interventions because of the near-total ban on abortion.
This is totalitarianism for 50% of the population. And as Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. said, “A threat to justice anywhere is a threat to justice anywhere.” If Christian Nationalists will violate the privacy and agency of 50% of the population for their supposed religious mandate, you can be assured they would not hesitate to restrict the other 50% as well.
The truth is that two-thirds of us are in favor of a woman’s bodily autonomy and need to get just as organized and motivated as those in the Christian Nationalist movement. We have the votes and the viewpoint that best supports and sustains a broad multi-religious and multi-cultural republic. This issue isn’t a divisive one. It is a matter of action. That is why this election is so important. It isn’t just the top of the ticket that is at stake, but it is the state houses and local elections that are just as important.
I’ll close with this quote from Robert P. Jones, Director of PRRI:
The truth is that we are not polarized on this issue of abortion—at least not if polarization is construed to mean an evenly divided country. Rather, what we have is a vocal and powerful minority attempting to enshrine their beliefs into law, over the objections of nearly twice as many Americans who disagree with them.
Let’s not submit to the tyranny of the minority!!
Great article, Dan. The charts you included are very interesting. The politicians, at all levels, who are either part of the 15% or cater to it in order to get their Christian Nationalist votes, are what both angers and terrifies me, along with the fact there is so much money behind all of this. Couple it with states that are so gerrymandered that candidates who represent the will of the majority can't win, and I can't help but feel that our descent into an authoritarian oligarchy has passed the tipping point.